Congress Watch

Backtest copying a member of Congress

Pick a politician and see what would have happened if you had bought and sold the same stocks a few days after each filing became public. The simulation only uses information that was public at that moment.

Tim Moore: 2026-01-01 to 2026-11-09

$10,000 invested became $9,529 by copying Tim Moore, against $10,799 in the S&P 500: 12.7 percentage points behind the index.

-4.7%copy portfolio return
+8.0%S&P 500 return
-9.4%worst drop
25trades executed

On average 28% of the money was invested. On the 209 days stocks were held, the copied holdings returned -25.6% a year against +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same days.

Value of the portfolio copying Tim Moore versus the S&P 5009,1289,73310,33810,94311,5482026-012026-062026-11Copy portfolioS&P 500 (SPY)Buy CBRL, 2026-01-12Buy GNPX, 2026-01-12Buy HOG, 2026-01-12Sell CBRL, 2026-01-27Buy HY, 2026-01-27Buy T, 2026-01-27Sell T, 2026-02-23Buy DNUT, 2026-02-23Buy GNPX, 2026-02-23Buy HOG, 2026-02-23Buy SMPL, 2026-02-23Sell DNUT, 2026-03-27Buy CBRL, 2026-03-27Buy HOG, 2026-03-27Buy LGIH, 2026-03-27Buy SMPL, 2026-03-27Sell CBRL, 2026-05-01Sell HOG, 2026-05-01Sell LGIH, 2026-05-01Buy IHG, 2026-05-22Buy RYCEY, 2026-05-22Buy T, 2026-05-22Sell T, 2026-06-08Buy T, 2026-06-08Sell T, 2026-08-24

Portfolio value (teal) and the same deposits in SPY (red). Green dots are copied purchases and red dots copied sales (at most 300 are drawn). Returns are time-weighted, so deposits do not count as gains.

Gain or loss by month

Monthly return copying Tim MooreJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2026Jan 2026: +1.0%Feb 2026: +0.2%Mar 2026: -1.5%Apr 2026: +1.0%May 2026: -2.1%Jun 2026: -0.1%Jul 2026: -3.0%Aug 2026: +1.0%Sep 2026: -2.1%Oct 2026: -0.1%Nov 2026: +0.9%Dec 2026: no activity

Monthly return of the whole portfolio, cash included. Green months gained, red months lost; darker means a bigger move.

Copied trades by month

Copied trades per month, Tim MooreJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2026Jan 2026: 6 tradesFeb 2026: 5 tradesMar 2026: 5 tradesApr 2026: 0 tradesMay 2026: 6 tradesJun 2026: 2 tradesJul 2026: 0 tradesAug 2026: 1 tradeSep 2026: 0 tradesOct 2026: 0 tradesNov 2026: 0 tradesDec 2026: no activity

Buys and sells the simulation executed each month; darker means more.

Biggest winners and losers

Best positionsProfit
HOG$313
LGIH$123
T$109
Worst positionsProfit
GNPX$-958
SMPL$-223
HY$-38

What was left out

The latest disclosure is dated 2026-11-05. Trades filed after that date are not in the dataset yet.

GNPX: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

HY: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

IHG: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

RYCEY: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

SMPL: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

4 copy order(s) were rejected; see the transaction log for each reason.

204 disclosed trade(s) were excluded: 136 executes before the backtest start; 66 unsupported asset type; 2 no usable ticker.

Hypothetical result with a 3-day delay, 5 basis points slippage, no fees and no leverage. See the methodology. Not investment advice.