Congress Watch

Backtest copying a member of Congress

Pick a politician and see what would have happened if you had bought and sold the same stocks a few days after each filing became public. The simulation only uses information that was public at that moment.

Lisa McClain: 2026-01-01 to 2026-11-09

$10,000 invested became $9,624 by copying Lisa McClain, against $10,799 in the S&P 500: 11.8 percentage points behind the index.

-3.8%copy portfolio return
+8.0%S&P 500 return
-5.6%worst drop
8trades executed

On average 6% of the money was invested. On the 171 days stocks were held, the copied holdings returned -63.6% a year against +15.4% for the S&P 500 over the same days.

Value of the portfolio copying Lisa McClain versus the S&P 5009,1289,73310,33810,94311,5482026-012026-062026-11Copy portfolioS&P 500 (SPY)Buy BBAI, 2026-03-09Buy CACI, 2026-10-15Buy CAT, 2026-10-15Buy IBRX, 2026-10-15Buy MSFT, 2026-10-15Buy NG, 2026-10-15Buy OLN, 2026-10-15Buy RIG, 2026-10-15

Portfolio value (teal) and the same deposits in SPY (red). Green dots are copied purchases and red dots copied sales (at most 300 are drawn). Returns are time-weighted, so deposits do not count as gains.

Gain or loss by month

Monthly return copying Lisa McClainJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2026Jan 2026: +0.0%Feb 2026: +0.0%Mar 2026: -0.8%Apr 2026: +0.6%May 2026: +1.3%Jun 2026: -1.6%Jul 2026: -1.1%Aug 2026: +0.4%Sep 2026: -0.6%Oct 2026: +0.3%Nov 2026: -2.3%Dec 2026: no activity

Monthly return of the whole portfolio, cash included. Green months gained, red months lost; darker means a bigger move.

Copied trades by month

Copied trades per month, Lisa McClainJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2026Jan 2026: 0 tradesFeb 2026: 0 tradesMar 2026: 1 tradeApr 2026: 0 tradesMay 2026: 0 tradesJun 2026: 0 tradesJul 2026: 0 tradesAug 2026: 0 tradesSep 2026: 0 tradesOct 2026: 7 tradesNov 2026: 0 tradesDec 2026: no activity

Buys and sells the simulation executed each month; darker means more.

Biggest winners and losers

Best positionsProfit
OLN$72
NG$7
CACI$0
Worst positionsProfit
BBAI$-233
CAT$-111
IBRX$-75

What was left out

The latest disclosure is dated 2026-11-05. Trades filed after that date are not in the dataset yet.

BBAI: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

CACI: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

CAT: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

IBRX: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

MSFT: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

NG: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

OLN: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

RIG: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.

1 copy order(s) were rejected; see the transaction log for each reason.

1432 disclosed trade(s) were excluded: 1404 executes before the backtest start; 24 bond or other debt, not an ordinary stock or ETF; 3 no usable ticker; 1 unsupported asset type.

Hypothetical result with a 3-day delay, 5 basis points slippage, no fees and no leverage. See the methodology. Not investment advice.