Congress WatchBacktest copying a member of Congress
Pick a politician and see what would have happened if you had bought and sold the same stocks a few days after each filing became public. The simulation only uses information that was public at that moment.
John J McGuire III: 2026-01-01 to 2026-11-09
$10,000 invested became $9,626 by copying John J McGuire III, against $10,799 in the S&P 500: 11.7 percentage points behind the index.
On average 2% of the money was invested. On the 62 days stocks were held, the copied holdings returned -85.4% a year against -17.2% for the S&P 500 over the same days.
Portfolio value (teal) and the same deposits in SPY (red). Green dots are copied purchases and red dots copied sales (at most 300 are drawn). Returns are time-weighted, so deposits do not count as gains.
Gain or loss by month
Monthly return of the whole portfolio, cash included. Green months gained, red months lost; darker means a bigger move.
Copied trades by month
Buys and sells the simulation executed each month; darker means more.
Biggest winners and losers
| Best positions | Profit |
|---|---|
| MU | $-79 |
| NVDA | $-98 |
| AMAT | $-197 |
| Worst positions | Profit |
|---|---|
| AMAT | $-197 |
| NVDA | $-98 |
| MU | $-79 |
What was left out
- 4 copy orders were not placed (no price history, no cash left, or the 20-position limit).
- 0 disclosed lines could not be copied: .
The latest disclosure is dated 2026-11-05. Trades filed after that date are not in the dataset yet.
AMAT: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.
MU: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.
NVDA: no price bar on 1 trading day(s) while held; valued at the last close.
4 copy order(s) were rejected; see the transaction log for each reason.
Hypothetical result with a 3-day delay, 5 basis points slippage, no fees and no leverage. See the methodology. Not investment advice.